Any choice has to battle against uncertainty 👊
Uncertainty is a constant, it's always there, cannot be avoided. And it's also the primary cause of doubts and frustration.
But it's not all bad 👇
Nothing is certain
Almost by definition, in the future nothing is certain. Nothing 🙅♂️
Certainty has value in the context of the present, and it's only technically valid for a single observer.
Choosing means defining an action for the future. Therefore, uncertainty is indivisible from choice.
If you choose, you are challenging uncertainty.
Important decisions
Important decisions are linked with time.
The more long-term impact has a decision, the more it's perceived as important.
Common examples are relationships and work. But another more simple example is getting a tattoo: it's impact is (technically) irreversible, therefore long-term by definition.
Long-term decisions have the most amount of uncertainty 😱
As you predict further in the future, the number of variables increases exponentially, making any prediction less certain.
Doubt is uncertainty
Every time you embark in a long journey (e.g. learning a new skill, college, a new job) you are making an important decision. You are fighting against chaos and uncertainty.
This mix generates doubt. And doubt will follow you along at every step of the way.
Any action (choice) moves towards a desired future. Future is uncertainty. Therefore, any action can potentially generate doubt.
The last piece of the puzzle is time.
Time and value
Time is the key variable that links future with uncertainty, uncertainty with doubt.
If your time was unlimited, uncertainty would not exist.
Infinite time makes everything certain. Infinite (by definition) implies any possible combination, therefore anything that you can do you will do.
So everything is certain.
Yes, and nothing would have meaning.
Meaning is defined by what you choose to forgo to achieve something else.
Something is more meaningful because you choose it over something else. And since your time is limited, you are making a permanent choice on a limited resource.
Taming uncertainty
If every choice brings doubt and uncertainty, how do you choose?
First, long-term decisions are an hazard.
Instead of framing a decision as "long term" (e.g. I will be working on this job for the next 10 years), squeeze it down to a shorter time-frame (e.g. I am going to do my best for the tasks of next week).
The score takes care of itself, focus on the next step. The next step is more imminent, less uncertain, and therefore easier to predict.
Second, as we saw before, time cancels out uncertainty. But you don't need infinite time.
The longer you pursue an activity, the more certain you become to obtain the final reward.
Example: you commit to learn how to code. Regardless of how slow or uncertain is your progress, as long as you accrue small improvements, time guarantees that you will achieve the objective.
Guarantees. Uncertainty disappears over a long-enough time horizon. Again, as long as you keep up the practice.
That's why the only condition for failing is quitting. Not quitting guarantees victory (with time).
I find myself often reflecting on meta-topics about excellence, victory, and word definitions. Expect me to cook more in this direction 🧐
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See you next 👋